Buying Into Bitcoins

With the 21st century demand for quick and big profits, one of the most controversial new investment vehicles has been Bitcoins, the virtual currency. It's gained controversy partly because of its volatility, partly through the instability of Bitcoin exchanges and partly because their in-traceability meant they were a favored payment method for criminals.

Things are changing and after a particularly volatile spell in which one of the main exchanges, MtGox, filed for bankruptcy, the currency seems to have settled into a more stable pattern allowing investors to be able to take a measured view of whether to risk their money in a currency that technically doesn't exist.

Volatility

Although Bitcoins are becoming increasingly popular, the market is still quite small, meaning that good and bad news can have a disproportionate effect on the price. The long term outlook for Bitcoins is potentially good, meaning that the upside on price is stronger than the potential for a decline over the long term. Most brokers recommend that you consider Bitcoin a medium to long term investment because of its volatility. Think of it in terms of real estate. No one buys and sells houses many times a day and there can be significant drops in property prices but the long term trend for property prices is usually up. The same can be said for Bitcoins. Whilst there is a significant daily trade in the currency, many Bitcoins are held as investments as analysts believe that it's likely the price of Bitcoins will rise long term because they are becoming more widely accepted.

Influencers

As with all financial instruments, prices are influenced by supply and demand. Bitcoins are no different but what has caused big fluctuations in price has been the unusual nature of the news that influenced the supply and demand:

• The bankruptcy of MtGox, one of the biggest Bitcoin exchanges

• The closing down of Silk Road which allegedly accepted Bitcoins for drug trading

• The disclosure by the US government that, despite the negative uses of Bitcoins, they believed that the currency had a future

• The media has also stirred up interest by reporting on milestones in the currency's rise and fall, trumpeting the rise to over $1000 and its subsequent plummet on bad publicity.

Generally the advice on investing in Bitcoins is to sit and watch the market for a couple of weeks to get an idea of how the currency trades, its volatility and trends. It's difficult to find rumor that hasn't instantly affected the value, so many suggest investing a small amount and simply watching for opportunities, a little like setting take profit levels with shares and Forex, you can do the same on Bitcoins; it's just a bit longer process and a little less automated.

Just like with any investment, the value can fall, and events like the collapse of MtGox and the closing down of Silk Road, negatively affected Bitcoins; not just because demand was reduced but also because Bitcoins were falsely linked with the companies by urban myth. The market seems to be becoming more regular, but not necessarily regulated, as more exchanges come online. Some of the exchanges will go the same way as MtGox but others will consolidate and become stronger and more reliable. No doubt official regulation will be applied to Bitcoins in due course at which time the volatility is likely to reduce.

Bitcoins represent an exciting and potentially lucrative medium to long term investment vehicle. Exciting because it hasn't yet been accepted into the mainstream of currencies or investment vehicles. One thing investors like about Bitcoins is their conviction to prospects as was in gold

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What Do You Need to Know About Call Options?

Call options are contracts in which the buyer has the right to buy a certain specified quantity of security at a predetermined price within a fixed period of time. You do need to remember that the right to buy is not an obligation.

If you are a seller of a call option, it means an obligation to sell the underlying security at the specified price when the option is exercised. The seller is paid a premium for taking the risk that is often accompanied with the obligation. Each contract may cover 100 shares for stock options.

Buying options

Call buying is the easiest way of trading options. Beginners often start trading options by buying calls. This is popular among novice traders not just because of its simplicity but also due to the increased ROI (Return on Investment) that can be generated from successful trades.

Simple example:

Suppose the stock of ABC company is trading at $50 and a contract with a strike price of $50 is placed expiring within a month's time priced at $3. It is strongly believed that the stock may rise sharply after the earnings report is presented in the coming weeks.

Based on this $300 is paid to buy a $50 ABC option of 100 shares. Suppose the option is spot on and the price of ABC rallies to $60 after strong earnings, you may be able to make a profit of $1000.

Selling options

Instead of purchasing options, you can also choose to sell them for a profit. The sellers can choose to sell, as they may expect that the call may expire worthless and they may be able to make a profit from the premium. Selling or short call is risky but profitable if it is done in a proper manner. You can choose to sell covered calls or uncovered (naked) calls.

Covered calls - In this the short call is covered if the seller owns the quantity (obligated) of the underlying security. It is a popular strategy that enables the seller to get additional income from the stock holdings by periodically selling the options.

Uncovered calls - The option seller writes calls without owning the owning the underlying security. This is known as shorting the calls naked. If you are a novice trader then such a risky strategy is not recommended as you may lose big.

Call spreads - In this an equal number of option contracts are bought and sold simultaneously. The buying and selling is done of the same underlying security but with varying strike prices and expiration dates. This helps in limiting the maximum loss of the trader but it can also cap the potential profit that can be made at the same time.

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Why You Should Be Careful With Too Small Stop-Loss

In the past, I met several traders, that experienced live results completely different from their backtest results. The cause was a seeming triviality - too small stop-loss. Let me explain to you today, why this can be a problem, what to be aware of and how to avoid this danger. The following topic is just about those breakout strategies that are using STOP order to open a position and, at the same time, they are using too small stop-loss (this article is not about strategies using market order). What is too small stop-loss? Well, it depends on the market and the timeframe. But in general, it is a stop-loss smaller than the size of an average bar of our main timeframe. Let me give you an example - if we are using a 30-minute chart with an average bar value 250 USD, and our strategy is working with an 80 USD stop-loss, we are heading into a serious trouble. The live trading results might (and in most cases almost probably will) be totally different from those that we have from the backtest. Let's take a look at the reason why.

This problem occurs when the stop-loss is so small, that some of the trades have entry order and stop-loss on the same bar. Let's say we have an entry STOP order on the price 100 and also a stop-loss on the price 99. Now, imagine that the bar opens on 98.7, it goes to 100.1 and we open the long position - and the stop-loss is set up to 99. And all of this happens within the same bar - i.e. within this one bar, the entry order is activated, the position is opened and the stop-loss is set up.

Now it is important to understand why this can be potentially a dangerous problem. It is quite simple. There are several backtesting platforms which are not able to recognize, with the wrong setup or when the data resolution is not fine enough if the stop-loss was or wasn't hit on an entry bar. In other words, there are certain situations when, in reality, the stop-loss was hit right after the position was opened, because right after the activation of the entry order, the market starts heading south. However, our backtesting platform evaluates the trade as a profitable one (from now on I will write about TradeStation as it is a platform that I primarily use). How is it possible?

Let's continue with the demonstration of the situation described above. In this situation we can see the rising bar, i.e. the one that has a close price above open price and, at the same time, the close is close to its high.There is an assumption that the bar was raising the whole time and TradeStation assumes that the "inner" move of the bar, i.e. the way the bar was generated, was constantly rising, a straight line.

TradeStation is simply following the logic that when the bar closed close to its high, the process of generating this bar was rising. In such situation, TradeStation assumes that the bar opened on 98.7 and the price was continuously rising to 100.4. And during this time, it also activated our buy order on the price 100.

Nevertheless, this is very inaccurate and dangerous assumption. What if the bar was first rising, activated our purchase order, but then it reversed and went back down, below our stop-loss, and then started rising again to close to its high?

This is a totally realistic scenario that is happening every single day and that would result in a clear loss (right after we open the position) - and yet, TradeStation (and potentially also other software), defines the situation as if there wasn't any correction inside the bar at all. So no stop-loss was hit and trade ended up as a profitable one. This is the root cause to major problems as in the backtest you clearly see a lot of profitable trades that, in reality, would end up as losses - and right after we start trading this strategy live, everything starts falling apart...

Protection #1

Luckily the situation isn't so serious as it looks like and the backtesting platforms, in general, take this risk into consideration.

The first protection against this threat is simple and, to a certain level, highly efficient. TradeStation calls it LIBB (Look-Inside-Bar-Backtesting), others call it different names, like Bar Magnifier. The point is that when you turn on this feature, the program looks inside the bar to the level of the finest available data resolution (in most cases it is 1 minute), if there wasn't any inside correction after the entry order was activated, or if there was a correction on the same bar when we entered and the stop-loss was hit.

Despite that it sounds like a great solution (which is today a standard part of most platforms), it doesn't have to be sufficient when it comes to small stop-losses. Why? Imagine a situation when your stop-loss is 80 USD, but the average bar of your finest LIBB resolution (i.e. mostly 1 minute) is 150 USD big. In this case you are experiencing the same problem as described above, when the platform is not able to determine whether the stop-loss inside the bar was hit or not and it makes, again, just an inaccurate approximations that are driven by the above-described logic - if the bar closed closer to its low or closer to its high. In other words, you are again at the beginning and with too small stop-loss, not even LIBB will help you, and the problem still persists.

Protection #2

So, we are getting to the point when we need to go a little bit deeper to solve this problem.One of the solutions would be to use even finer data resolution - down to the tick level. But this isn't as easy as it sounds. Firstly the tick data history is not so easily accessible, or just for a very short period. And if these data are available, they are really expensive. But even if you still purchase tick data, you need to solve several technical issues - as the tick data are usually so big, that most of the platforms won't handle so many data, crashes or runs backtests incredibly slow (I can confirm this).

Protection #3

So we need to use much simpler solution - and that is the necessity to use reasonably big stop-loss. And what is reasonably big stop-loss? Simply use stop-loss that is at least 1.5-2x bigger than the biggest 1-minute bar on your chart. It is simple and you can avoid several problems. For example, if the biggest 1-minute bar for all your data history was 300 USD, use stop-loss at least 450 USD. Period.It is simpler and safer to get used to higher stop-losses than lying to ourselves and subsequently be surprised why such a nice backtest equity is quite the opposite of results of live trading.

Happy trading!

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How to Use Basis in Hedging

Cash Price - Futures Price = Basis (at a specific point in time)

A producer's decision as to when and how to market their crops or livestock can have as big an impact on their net bottom line profit as any production decision they may make throughout the year. Farmers today have more marketing alternatives than in the past and face a complex and fast paced marketing system. They need to compare the traditional marketing methods of making cash sales at harvest (or before harvest, on guaranteed insured bushels), or when livestock are ready for market, to forward contracting or hedging with futures or options. To do this they need to thoroughly understand the relationship between different quotes in prices, to be able to compare them equally in terms of time, place and the quality.

As stated above the relationship between the cash and futures price is known as the "basis". In marketing, basis generally refers to the difference between a price in a particular cash market and a specific futures contract price. Basis "localizes" the futures price with respect to location, time, and quality. Understanding basis makes it possible to compare the "futures market price quotes" with cash and "forward contract" price quotes.

Calculating Basis

The formula for calculating basis is: Cash Price - Futures Price = Basis at a specific point in time. A negative basis implies the futures price is greater than the cash price, and a positive basis implies that the futures price is less than the cash price.

In this formula, the "cash price" is for a specific location, time, and quality of product. The location may be a specific elevator, ethanol plant, packer, etc., or it may represent an average price for the general area. The time may represent a specific day or possibly a weekly average. Quality may be what grade or corn you have or the weight of your cattle. The "futures price" in the formula is for a contract for the same time the cash price represents. The quality of the product in the futures contract price is standardized.

Basis is most often calculated as the difference between the cash price and the closest to expiration (nearby), futures contract. For example, in June the corn basis would be calculated using the current cash price minus the July futures contract price. Basis with grains may also be calculated using the cash price and a more distant futures contract in order to see if the market is offering returns to storage ("Carry").

Livestock is different in that you would only consider the nearby basis (not deferred), for hedging and cash sale purpose because, unlike grains, livestock are perishable and cannot be stored for any length of time, like grains can.

In our next installment we will discuss ways to "predict basis", and ways you can start to track and record basis data in your area properly.

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The Fascination With Fibonacci - Trader's Advantage

Fibonacci, not so much the man but the math, is pretty fascinating on its own apart from trading.

To see how each number in the Fibonacci Sequence relates to each other in some set ratio (ie..618, 1.382, etc.) and then connect these ratios to objects of nature is absolutely fascinating. Within minutes of starting to learn about Fibonacci numbers, you are drawn into a world of plant proportions and architecture of pyramids and other monuments.

The connection of the Fibonacci numbers and all things nature is also found in the world of trading itself.

When I started trading the markets back in the mid-80's, my focus was like that of many new traders. The analysis of choice was fundamentals. Listen to the news, recommendations from friends and talking heads, or glace at the supply/demand numbers. But then something wonderful happened at the start of the 1990's. I discovered (for myself) Fibonacci and its basic application to price and time analysis. From then on I focused on Technical Analysis and never listened to another talking head (or friend) on what to buy or sell ever again.

The applications of Fibonacci to trading are many. Most traders who use Technical Analysis are familiar with the basic use of Fibonacci in chart analysis. Here are some basic examples:

Solving for Support or Resistance - After prices have trended for a number of days/weeks/months in a certain direction, from either a significant bottom to a top, or from a significant top to a bottom, it is called a "range". The trader identifies the range, then multiplies that range by the Fibonacci ratios of .382 and 618 for example. The results are deducted from the top price (if the range is from bottom to top) or added to the bottom price (if the range is from top to bottom) in order to get support or resistance price levels, respectively. Often additional ratios are included in this calculation.

Solving for time - A basic but fascinating approach to using Fibonacci is to count the days/weeks/months between previous market tops and bottoms and multiply the count by the Fibonacci ratios. The result is counted from the last top or bottom forward in time where another top or bottom is then expected likely to occur.

Moving from the basics of Fibonacci and chart analysis are more advanced (or mostly unknown) applications for the ratios.

There are the use of Fibonacci spirals, for example, which produce both time and price results.

There are the combined use of Fibonacci ratios along with time/price squaring results.

The techniques and methods one can use to exploit the markets using Fibonacci are numerous!

Within my charting software I often use what are called Fibonacci Fan Lines. The application here is somewhat like that mentioned above under "Solving for Support or Resistance", with the major difference being that the Fan Lines produce DYNAMIC support and resistance levels (the values change for each time interval on the chart, higher for ascending lines and lower for descending lines). They also require locating patterns two ranges (top to bottom to top, or bottom to top to bottom). You simply label the extreme of range as A, B and C. For example, ranges of top to bottom and back to top would be labeled "A" for the first top, "B" for the following bottom, and "C" for the final top. The range of "B to C" is divided by the Fibonacci ratios and then lines are drawn from "A" through the divisions of the range of "B to C" out into the future. These become your support/resistance levels.

Another fascinating approach to using Fibonacci for chart analysis is to simply add the Fibonacci series numbers to any significant top or bottom to get possible future tops and bottoms.

For example, the series starting at 3 would be 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, etc. Add any two consecutive numbers in the series to get the next number in the series. Now locate a top or bottom on your price chart and count from there 3 bars, 5 bars, 8 bars, etc. These are time periods to watch for possible market tops and bottoms.

These are just some of the many examples and applications you can do with Fibonacci and your chart analysis. Try them yourself and I'm sure you also will be fascinated with Fibonacci!

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Greed and Fear: Common Stock Trading Traps and How to Avoid Them

Greed and fear are the two dominant emotions that affect the stock market. Although there are many other factors that influence the change in stock price, these two emotions are the underlying cause for the unpredictable fluctuation of stock price. As emotional creatures, humans make trade decisions all the time based on their feelings about the given market conditions. However, trading decisions influenced by emotions of greed and fear and stock trading success are two things that generally don't go hand in hand.

So how do these emotions really influence the individual traders decisions? More importantly, how can a trader avoid emotional trading?

Holding a stock in fear as it drops in price is a classic way traders lose money.

Say the typical trader buys a stock and it slowly goes down for a few days after the purchase. The trader is a bit worried but he still keeps his composer because he is certain that the stock will come back up. He holds for a few more days and the stock continues to inch downward. At this point the trader has lost a large percent of his original position.

Now the panic starts to kick in...

The trader begins to panic but he doesn't sell off because this is too much of a loss to bear. He can't afford to lose such a large chunk of his portfolio especially since he thinks the stock will come back up any day. The trader is praying that it will bounce back up just enough so he can at least break even. Yet as he clings to his position in fear, stock continues to fall. Finally he sells the stock partially out of fear that it will drop even lower and also because he can't bear the pain of holding the failing positions anymore.

This is a prime example of how the fear affects traders. Holding onto a stock because you have a hunch that the price will bounce back up is a dangerous way to interact with the stock market. Because of the markets unpredictable nature, you can never be completely certain of what might happen next.

So how would the greed influence this same unfortunate trader?

Keep in mind that after the trader lost such a large sum of money, he wants to earn it back as quickly as possible. Eager to find opportunities to make the most money back to cover his loss, he searches for riskier stocks. After running some scans he spots a penny stock that is moving ten, twenty, even 30 percent every day. With moves like this the trader figures that he could make back the money and more in the next week.

This particular stock's price pattern is extremely volatile and sporadic. The trader has no way to gauge where the price might move next. However, the trader still impulsively takes a position while holding onto the belief that the stock will make him a fortune. The trader is completely engrossed in the prospect of making a large sum of money in such a short amount of time. Because he was so eager and impatient, the trader had placed his trade without assessing any of the safer, more predictable stocks.

Nevertheless, the stock does not make him a fortune. The stock abruptly reverses downward in the next few days.

These are two classic scenarios of how many traders play the market. They let their emotions get the best of them and their trading success suffers as a result. Making trading decisions influenced by greed and fear will never produce profitable results.

So how do you take the emotions of greed and fear out of trading? The answer is simple. Lay out a solid strategy and stick to it.

This of course is often easier said than done. However, trading in a strict and systematic way limits the emotional element of trading significantly. Disciplined trading according to a plan is the antidote to emotional trading.

As mentioned before, trading based on predictions and emotion never leads to a profitable outcome. This is why sticking to a strategy is so important.

Stop-losses in particular are extremely important components in the strategy. When a stock hits your stop-loss it is extremely tempting to ignore it thinking a reversal is right around the corner. However, the truth is that you just don't know if it's going to go up. When the stock hits your stop-loss, simply step back and take you position out of the market. If you made some profit off of the stock then that's great. If you lost some money, just wait and see if you get another buy signal from the stock and step back in.

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Real Time Forex Signals - 3 Ways to Benefit From Them

The concept of Forex trading is pinned to the rise and fall of markets. The very nature of trading demands that the trader take decisions swiftly. The biggest safeguard in Forex trading is undeniably, the stop loss limit. It helps to keep the trader exposed to lesser risk. However, it is also important that profits are maximized during the trades. This is possible only by swift decisions based on sound information. Unveiled below are three ways in which a trader can benefit from real time Forex signals, and make better margins.

Convenient methods of receiving tips - real time

Real time Forex signal providers offer tips through convenient modes such as SMS, email and pop ups on the screen. This makes it easy to take decisions without having to constantly check the markets or look for information. Receiving real time Forex signals is like having a hand on the pulse of the markets. The timely receipt of information can goad you to action that is immensely beneficial.

Tips on parity

The information on currency pairs is disseminated on same price purchase points to all subscribers. Therefore, this gives a level playing ground to everyone. The opportunity to strike it rich is equal to all, and traders who take a swift but prudent decision end up seeing success. The tips that are shared are as a result of careful evaluation of inputs. The very existence of the Forex signal provider hinges on the credibility of the tips. Therefore, you can expect the tips to be based on proper inputs.

Guidance on entry and exit points

New entrants to Forex trading who may not have much knowledge, receive guidance offered by Forex signal providers. This guidance in the form of entry and exit points are hugely beneficial. This phase helps traders to learn how to trade without having to take serious risks upfront. With advanced software, the automated Forex signals are very comprehensive and function more like a mini investment advisor. This efficient service helps to cut exposure to risks.

Real time Forex signals have vastly benefitted countless number of users. The benefits of relying on real time signals are manifold. This has helped to bring more number of small time investors into Forex trading. Though there are risks associated with Forex trading, as with all trading, it is possible to stay afar from risks by taking the right decisions. Our customers are mainly from the European Union, Asia, Arabian World, Australia, USA.

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Bonds are an integral part of every Canadian's portfolio for good reason. Bonds carry the "promise" of fixed income with regular stable cash flows. But with interest rates hovering at all-time lows, the pressure to make every cent count has never been greater. Creating such exposure smartly can make all the difference in the returns.

A portfolio for the average Canadian probably contains fixed income securities, otherwise known as bonds. Bonds are particularly attractive to those investors at or near retirement as they look to replace their regular and stable salary with a similar certain stream of interest income.

Unfortunately purchasing bonds in Canada is not as easy or as cost effective as purchasing stocks. Unlike equities which trade on an open stock market exchange with fully transparent bid and ask prices, bonds in Canada have to be purchased through a 'dealer network' which effectively removes all the efficiency and transparency of a fully functional liquid market.

This is where it gets unpleasant for the retail investor. Compared to gigantic financial institutions who invest billions of dollars with pooled assets, it is extremely challenging for the retail investor to purchase a bond with the similar efficacy as these large behemoth financial institutions.

The only thing that might be worse than purchasing bonds through Canada's dealer network is purchasing a bond mutual fund. The average expense ratio on a Canadian bond mutual fund is close to 1.75%. In an interest rate environment where long term yields are hovering around 3.5%, that's like sharing my hamburger with a stranger and him taking half of it in one bite. I don't think so!

So how can the retail investor get the fixed income exposure with a handsome seniority and a tight bid ask spread? The average investor should consider Bond ETF's to create the fixed income exposure in their portfolios.

ETF's are managed by big financial institutions, and trade on any number of stock exchanges just like your favorite stock. The benefits to the average investor are numerous.

A bond ETF, is basically a bunch of different bonds bundled up in a portfolio and traded in the stock market. Unlike the individual bonds themselves, there is substantially more liquidity in bond ETFs, which makes for a tighter bid ask spread. Basically, investors can easily exit their position at any time without the cost of large transaction fees.

This advantage alone is all retail investors should need to convince themselves that bond ETFs are the most efficient way to gain exposure to the fixed income market. In addition, these Bond ETFs have huge amounts of assets under management and have superior purchasing power. For example, total assets under management for the major Canadian Bond ETFs is in excess of 2 trillion dollars. Guess what - that gives these ETF companies huge leverage in negotiating with the best bond issuers. Not only are they able to trade in and out of bonds at much better spreads than you or I could ever get, but they also have access to the best issuers.

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